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Friday, September 12, 2025

Vogue

Vogue (pronounced vohg)

(1) Something in fashion at a particular time or in a particular place.

(2) An expression of popular currency, acceptance, or favor.

(3) A highly stylized modern dance that evolved out of the Harlem ballroom scene in the 1960s, the name influenced by the fashion magazine; one who practiced the dance was a voguer who was voguing.

(4) In Polari, a cigarette or to light a cigarette (often in the expression “vogue me up”).

(5) The world's best known women's fashion magazine, the first issue in 1892 and now published by Condé Nast.

1565–1575: From the Middle English vogue (height of popularity or accepted fashion), from the Middle French vogue (fashion, success (literally, “wave or course of success”)), from the Old French vogue (a rowing), from voguer (to row, sway, set sail), from the Old Saxon wegan (to move) & wogōn (to sway, rock), a variant of wagōn (to float, fluctuate), from the Proto-Germanic wagōną (to sway, fluctuate) and the Proto-Germanic wēgaz (water in motion), wagōną (to sway, fluctuate), wēgaz (water in motion) & weganą (to move, carry, weigh), from the primitive Indo-European weǵh- (to move, go, transport (and an influence on the English way).  The forms were akin to the Old Saxon wegan (to move), the Old High German wegan (to move), the Old English wegan (to move, carry, weigh), the Old Norse vaga (to sway, fluctuate), the Old English wagian (to sway, totter), the Proto-West Germanic wagōn, the German Woge (wave) and the Swedish våg.  A parallel development the Germanic forms was the Spanish boga (rowing) and the Old Italian voga (a rowing), from vogare (to row, sail), of unknown origin and the Italianate forms were probably some influence on the development of the verb.  Vogue, voguie & voguer are nouns (voguette an informal noun), voguing is a noun and adjective, vogued is a verb and vogueing & voguish are adjectives; the noun plural is vogues.  The noun voguie is a special use and is a synonym of fashionista ((1) one who creates or promotes high fashion (designers, editors, models, influencers etc) or (2) one who dresses according to the trends of fashion, or one who closely follows those trends).

All etymologists seem to concur the modern meaning is from the notion of being "borne along on the waves of fashion" and colloquially the generalized sense of "fashion, reputation" is probably from the same Germanic source.  The phrase “in vogue” (having a prominent place in popular fashion) was recorded as long ago as 1643.  The fashion magazine (now owned by Condé Nast) began publication in 1892 and young devotees of its advice (they are legion) are voguettes.  In linguistics, vogue words are those words & phrases which become suddenly (although not always neologisms) popular and fade from use or becoming clichéd or hackneyed forms (wardrobe malfunction; awesome; problematic; at this point in time; acid test; in this space; parameters; paradigm etc).  Because it’s so nuanced, vogue has no universal synonym but words which tend to the same meaning (and can in some circumstances be synonymous) include latest, mod, now, rage, chic, craze, currency, custom, fad, favor, mode, popularity, practice, prevalence, style, stylishness, thing, trend & usage.

Lindsay Lohan cover, Vogue (Spanish edition), August 2009.

In Regional English, "vogue" could mean "fog or mist" and in Cornwall, the hamlet of Vogue in the parish of St Day gained its name from the Medieval Cornish vogue (a word for a medieval smelting furnace (ie "blowing house", the places generating much smoke)); civilization contributing to the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses is nothing new.  Clearly better acquainted with trademark law than geography, in early 2022 counsel for Condé Nast sent a C&D (cease and desist letter) to the inn-keeper of the village’s The Star Inn at Vogue pub, demanding the place change its name to avoid any public perception of a connection between the two businesses.  The owners of the venerable pub declined the request (cheekily suggesting they might send their own C&D to Vogue demanding the publication find a new name on the basis of usurpation (an old tort heard before the Court of Chivalry).  Condé Nast subsequently apologized, citing insufficient investigation by their staff, a framed copy of their letter hung on the pub's wall.  Honor apparently satisfied on both sides, the two Vogues resumed the peaceful co-existence which had prevailed since 1892. 

1981 Range Rover In Vogue from the first run with the standard stylized steel wheels (left) and a later 1981 In Vogue with the three-spoke aluminum units.

Much of the 1970s was spent in what to many felt like a recession, even if there were only some periods in some places during which the technical definition was fulfilled and the novel phenomenon of stagflation did disguise some of the effects.  Less affected than most (of course) were the rich who had discovered a new status-symbol, the Range Rover which, introduced in 1970 had legitimized (though there were earlier ventures) the idea of the "luxury" four-wheel-drive (4WD) segment although the interior of the original was very basic (the floor-coverings rubber mats rather than carpets on the assumption that, as with the even more utilitarian Land Rovers, there would be a need to "hose out" the mud accumulated from a day's HSF (huntin', shootin' & fishin')), the car’s reputation built more on it's then unique blend of competence on, and off-road.  So good was the Range Rover in both roles that owners, used to being cosseted in leather and walnut, wanted something closer to that to which they were accustomed and dealers received enquiries about an up-market version.

Lindsay Lohan at the opening of the Ninety years of Vogue covers exhibition, Crillon Hotel, Paris, 2009.

That had been Rover’s original intention.  The plan had been to release a basic version powered by four cylinder engines and a luxury edition with a V8 but by 1970 time and development funds had run out so the car was released with the V8 power-train and the more spartan interior although it was quickly apparent few owners took advantage of being able to hose out the mud.  Indeed, so skewed was the buyer profile to urban profiles it's likely the only time many ventured off the pavement was to find a good spot in the car parks of polo fields.  In something which must now seem remarkable, although already perceived as a "prestige" vehicle, for the first decade-odd, the Range Rover was not available with either air-conditioning or an automatic transmission.  However, if the rich were riding out the decade well, British Leyland (which owned Rover) was not and it lacked the capital to devote to the project.  Others took advantage of what proved a profitable niche and those with the money (or spending OPM (other people's money) could choose from a variety of limited-production and bespoke offerings including LWB (long-wheelbase) models, four-door conversions, six wheelers and even open-topped versions from a variety of coach-builders such as Wood & Pickett and low-volume manufacturers like Switzerland’s Monteverdi which anticipated the factory by a number of years with their four-door coachwork.

Rendez-vous à Biarritz, Vogue magazine, March 1981.  The eight page advertising supplement was for Lancôme and Jaeger fashion collections, the Wood & Pickett-trimmed Range Rover a "backdrop" which would prove a serendipitous piece of product placement. 

British Leyland was soon subject to one of the many re-organizations which would seek (without success) to make it a healthy corporation and one consequence was increased autonomy for the division making Range Rovers.  No longer compelled to subsidize less profitable arms of the business, attention was turned to the matter of a luxury model, demand for which clearly existed.  To test market reaction, in late 1980, the factory collaborated with Wood & Pickett to design a specially-equipped two-door model as a proof-of-concept exercise to gauge market reaction.  The prototype (HAC 414W) was lent to Vogue magazine, a crafty choice given the demographic profile of the readership and the by then well-known extent of women’s own purchasing power and influence on that of their husbands.  Vogue took the prototype to Biarritz to be the photographic backdrop for the images taken for the magazine’s co-promotion of the 1981 Lancôme and Jaeger fashion collections, published in an eight-page advertising spread entitled Rendez-vous à Biarritz in the March 1981 edition.  The response was remarkable and while Lancôme and Jaeger’s launch attracted polite attention, Vogue’s mailbox (which then received letters in envelopes with postage stamps) was overwhelmingly filled with enquiries about the blinged-up Range-Rover (although "bling" was a linguistic generation away from use).

Vogue's Range Rover In Vogue (HAC 414W) in Biarritz, 1981, all nuts on board or otherwise attached.  The model name was a play on words, Range Rovers very much "in vogue" and this particular version substantially the one "in Vogue".

Rover had expected demand to be strong and the reaction to the Vogue spread justified their decision to prepare for a production run even before publication and the Range Rover In Vogue went on sale early in 1981, the limited-edition run all closely replicating the photo-shoot car except for the special aluminum wheels which were not yet in volume production.  Amusingly, the triple-spoke wheels (similar to the design Ford had used on the 1979 (Fox) Mustang) had been a problem in Biarritz, the factory supplying the wrong lug nuts which had a tendency to fall off, meaning the staff travelling with the car had to check prior to each shoot to ensure five were present on each wheel which would appear in the picture.  Not until later in the year would the wheels be ready so the In Vogue’s went to market with the standard stylized steel units, meaning the brochures had to be pulped and reprinted with new photographs and some small print: "Alloy wheels, as featured on the vehicle used by Vogue magazine will be available at extra cost through Unipart dealers later in 1981".  British Leyland's record-keeping was at the time as chaotic as much of its administration so it remains unclear how many were built.  The factory said the run would be 1,000, all in right hand drive (RHD) but many left hand drive (LHD) examples exist and it’s thought demand from the continent was such another small batch was built although this has never been confirmed.  The In Vogue’s exclusive features were:

Light blue metallic paint (the model-exclusive Vogue Blue) with wide body stripes in two shades of grey (not black as on the prototype).
High compression (9.35:1) version of the V8 (to provide more torque).
Higher high-gear ratio (0.996:1) in the transfer box (to reduce engine speed and thus noise in highway driving).
Air conditioning
Varnished walnut door cappings.
Armrest between the front seats.
Map pockets on the back of the front seats (the rationale for not including the folding picnic tables so beloved by English coach-builders being the design of the Range Rover's rear tailgate had made it the "de-facto picnic table".
Fully carpeted luggage compartment.
Carpeted spare wheel cover and tool-kit curtain.
Picnic hamper.
Stainless steel tailgate cap.
Black wheel hub caps.


The "fitted picnic hamper".

Condé Nast would later describe the In Vogue’s custom picnic hamper as the car’s "pièce de résistance". which might have amused Rover's engineers who would have put some effort into stuff they'd have thought "substantive".  Now usually written in English as "piece de resistance" (masterpiece; the most memorable accomplishment of one’s career or lifetime; one's magnum opus (great work)), the French phrase pièce de résistance (literally the "piece which has staying power") seems first to have appeared in English in Richard Cumberland (1732–1811) novel Arundel (1789).  One can see the writer's point.  Although the walnut, additional torque and certainly the air conditioning would have been selling points, like nothing else, the picnic hamper would have delighted the target market.

Demand for the In Vogue far exceeded supply and additional production runs quickly were scheduled.  In response to customer demand, the most frequently made request was acceded to, the second series available with Chrysler's robust TorqueFlite automatic transmission, introduced at the same time as the debut of a four-door version, another popular enquiry while the three-spoke wheels became standard equipment and equipment levels continued to rise, rear-head restraints fitted along with a much enhanced sound-system.  In what was perhaps a nod to the wisdom of the magazine's editors, although a cooler replaced the hamper for the second run, for the third, buyers received both cooler and hamper.  The third series, launched in conjunction with the Daks autumn fashion collection at Simpson's of Piccadilly, included a digital radio, the convenience of central locking and the almost unnoticed addition of front mud flaps so clearly there was an understanding that despite the Range Rover's well deserved reputation as a "Chelsea taxi", the things did sometimes see the mud and ladies didn't like the stuff getting on their dresses as they alighted.  In 1984, as "Vogue", it became the regular production top-of-the-range model and for many years served in this role although, for licencing reasons, when sole in the US it was called the "Country").  For both companies, the In Vogue and subsequent Vogues turned out to be the perfect symbiosis.

Art and Engineering

Vogue, January 1925, cover art by Georges Lepape.

From the start, Vogue (the magazine) was of course about frocks, shoes and such but its influence extended over the years to fields as diverse as interior decorating and industrial design.  The work of Georges Lepape (1887-1971) has long been strangely neglected in the history of art deco but he was a fine practitioner whose reputation probably suffered because his compositions habitually were regarded as derivative or imitative which seems unfair given there are many who are more highly regarded despite being hardly original.  His cover art for Vogue’s edition of 1 January 1925 juxtaposed one of French artist Sonia Delaunay’s (1885–1979) "simultaneous" pattern dresses and a Voisin roadster decorated with an art deco motif.

1927 Voisin C14 Lumineuse.

One collector in 2015 was so taken with Pepape’s image that when refurbishing his 1927 Voisin C14 Lumineuse (literally “light”, an allusion to the Voisin’s greenhouse-inspired design which allowed natural light to fill the interior), he commissioned Dutch artist Bernadette Ramaekers to hand-paint a geometric triangular pattern in sympathy with that on the Vogue cover in 1925.  Ms Ramaekers took six months to complete the project and when sold at auction in London in 2022, it realized Stg£202,500.  There are few designers as deserving of such a tribute as French aviation pioneer Gabriel Voisin (1880–1973) who made military aircraft during the First World War (1914-1918) and, under the name Avions Voisin, produced a remarkable range of automobiles between 1919-1939, encapsulating thus the whole inter-war period and much of the art deco era.  Because his designs were visually so captivating, much attention has always been devoted to his lines, curves and shapes but the underlying engineering was also interesting although some of his signature touches, like the (briefly in vogue) sleeve valve engine, proved a mirage.

Voisin's extraordinary visions:  1934 C27 Aérosport (left), 1934-1935 Voisin C25 Aérodynes (centre) & 1931 C20 Mylord Demi Berline (right).

Also a cul-de-sac was his straight-12 engine.  Slow-running straight-12 (there is even a straight-14 which displaces 25,340 litres (1,546,000 cubic inches) and produces 107,290 hp (80,080 kW)) engines are known at sea where they’re used in (very) big ships but on the road (apart from some less than successful military vehicles), only Voisin and Packard ever attempted them, the former making two, the latter, one.  Voisin’s concept was simple enough; it was two straight-6s joined together, end-on-end, the same idea many had used to make things like V12s (2 x V6s) straight-8s (2 x straight-4s) H16s (two flat-8s, one atop another) and even V24s (2 x V12s) but the sheer length of a straight-12 in a car presented unique problems in packaging and the management of the torsional vibrations induced by the elongated crankshaft.  Straight-12s were built for use in aircraft (Bristol's Type 25 Braemar II in 1919 using four of them!) where the attraction was the aerodynamic advantage conferred by the small frontal area but as engine speeds increased in the 1920s, so did the extent of the problem of crankshaft flex and the concept was never revived.

1934 Voisin C15 Saloit Roadster (left) and the one-off Packard straight-12, scrapped when the decision was taken not to proceed to production (right).

The length of the straight-12 meant an extraordinary amount of the vehicle’s length had to be devoted to housing just the engine and that resulted in a high number for what designers call the dash-to-axle ratio.  That was one of the many reasons the straight-12 never came into vogue and indeed was one of the factors which doomed the straight-8, a configuration which at least had some redeeming features.  Voisin must however have liked the appearance of the long hood (bonnet) because the striking C15 Saloit Roadster (which could have accommodated a straight-12) was powered by a straight-4, a sleeve valve Knight of 2500 cm³ (153 cubic inch).  The performance doubtlessly didn’t live up to the looks but so sensuous were those looks that many would forgive the lethargy.  The concept of a short engine in a lengthy compartment was revived by Detroit in the 1960s & 1970s, many of the truly gargantuan full-sized sedans and coupes built with elongated front & rear structures.  At the back, the cavernous trunks (boots) often could swallow four sets of gold clubs which would have had some appeal to the target market but much of the space under the hood was unused.  While large enough to accommodate a V16, the US industry hadn't made those since the last of the Cadillac V16s left the line in 1940 after a ten-year run.  While one of the reasons the V8 had supplanted the straight-8 was its relatively compact length, that virtue wasn't needed by the late 1950s when, in all directions, the sheet-metal grew well beyond what was required by the mechanical components, the additional size just for visual impact to enhance the perception of prestige and luxury in an era when bigger was better.  Dramatic though the look could be (witness the 1969 Pontiac Grand Prix), the packaging efficiency was shockingly wasteful.

The Dart which never was

Using one of his signature outdoor settings, Norman Parkinson (1913-1990) photographed model Suzanne Kinnear (b 1935) adorning a Daimler SP250, wearing a Kashmoor coat and Otto Lucas beret with jewels by Cartier.

The image appeared on the cover (left) of Vogue's UK edition in November 1959, the original's (right) color being "enhanced" in the Vogue pre-production editing tradition (women thinner, cars shinier).  The "wide" whitewall tyres were a thing at the time, even on sports cars and were a popular option on US market Jaguar E-Types (there (unofficially) called XK-E or XKE) in the early 1960s.  The car on the Vogue cover was XHP 438, built on prototype chassis 100002 at Compton Verney in 1959; it's the oldest surviving SP250, the other two prototypes (chassis 100000 & 100001 from 1958) dismantled when testing was completed.  XHP 438 was the factory's press demonstrator and was used in road tests by Motor and Autocar magazines before being re-furbished (motoring journalists subjecting the press fleet to a brief but hard life) and sold.  Uniquely, when XPH 438 was first registered in England, it was as a "Daimler Dart".

More Issues Than Vogue sweatshirt from Impressions.

There was however an issue with the "Dart" name.  The SP250 was first shown to the public at the 1959 New York Motor Show and there the problems began.  Aware the little sports car was quite a departure from the luxurious but rather staid line-up Daimler had for years offered, the company had chosen the pleasingly alliterative “Dart” as its name, hoping it would convey the sense of something agile and fast.  Unfortunately, Chrysler’s lawyers were faster still, objecting that they had already registered Dart as the name for a full-sized Dodge so Daimler needed a new name and quickly; the big Dodge would never be confused with the little Daimler but the lawyers insisted.  Imagination apparently exhausted, Daimler’s management reverted to the engineering project name and thus the car became the SP250 which was innocuous enough even for Chrysler's attorneys and it could have been worse.  Dodge had submitted their Dart proposal to Chrysler for approval and while the car found favor, the name did not and the marketing department was told to conduct research and come up with something the public would like.  From this the marketing types gleaned that “Dodge Zipp” would be popular and to be fair, dart and zip(p) do imply much the same thing but ultimately the original was preferred and Darts remained in Dodge’s lineup until 1976, for most of that time one of the corporation's best-selling and most profitable lines.  Cynically, the name was between 2012-2016 revived for an unsuccessful and unlamented FWD (front-wheel-drive) compact sedan.

Monday, August 4, 2025

Exposome

Exposome (pronounced eks-poh-sohm)

(1) A concept describing (1) the environmental exposures an individual encounters throughout life and (2) how these factors impact an individual's biology and health.

(2) The collection of environmental factors (stress, diet, climate, health-care etc) to which an individual is exposed and which can have an effect on health outcomes.

2005: The construct was expos(e) +‎ -ome, the word coined by cancer epidemiologist Dr Christopher Wild, then director of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).  Expose (in the sense of “to lay open to danger, attack, harm etc”; “to lay open to something specified”) dates from the mid-fifteenth century and was from the late Middle English exposen, from the Middle French exposer (to lay open, set forth), from the Latin expōnō (set forth), with contamination from poser (to lay, place). The –ome suffix was an alteration of -oma, from the Ancient Greek -ωμα (-ōma).  It was only partially cognate to -some (body), from σῶμα (soma) (body), in that both share the case ending -μα (-ma), but the ω was unrelated.  The sense was of “a mass of something” and use is familiar in forms such as genome (in genetics the complete genetic information (DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) or RNA (ribonucleic acid)) and phenome (the whole set of phenotypic entities in a cell, tissue, organ, organisms, and species). Exposome is a noun and exposomic is an adjective; the noun plural is exposomes.

The study and assessment of external and internal factors (chemical, physical, biological, social, climatic etc) factors that may influence human health is not new and evidence of interest in the topic(s) exist in the literature of physicians and philosophers (there was sometimes overlap) from the ancient civilizations of Greece, Rome, China, Persia and India.  One of the paradoxes of modernity in medicine was that simultaneously there developed an interest in (1) interdisciplinary and holistic approaches while (2) specialization become increasingly entrenched, the latter leading sometimes to a “siloing” in research and data accumulation.  What makes exposome a useful tool is it is a way of expressing the interplay between genetics and environmental factors in the development of diseases with a particular focus on chronic conditions and widely the concept has been applied in many fields of medicine beyond public health.  What it does is calculate the cumulative effect of multiple exposures, allowing researchers to “scope-down” to specific or general gene-environment interactions, producing data to permit a more accurate assessment of disease risk and thus the identification of useful modes of intervention.

Dr Wild’s coining of exposome came about because some word or phrase was needed to describe his innovation which was the application of a systematic approach to measuring environmental exposures to what was coming to be known about the human genome; in a sense it was an exercise in cause and effect, the three components being (1) the external exposome, (2) the internal exposome and (3) the biological response.  The external exposome included factors such as air pollution, diet and socioeconomic factors as well as specific external factors like chemicals and radiation.  The internal exposome included endogenous factors, such as hormones, inflammation, oxidative stress, and gut microbiota.  The biological response described the complex interactions between the external and internal exposome factors and their influence on an individual's physiology and health.

At its most comprehensive (and complex), the exposome is a cumulative measure of all environmental exposures to which an individual has been subject throughout their entire life.  While that’s something that can be modelled for an “imagined person”, in a real-world instance it will probably always be only partially complete, not least because in some cases critical environmental exposures may not be known for long after their effect has been exerted; indeed, some may be revealed only by an autopsy (post mortem).  Conceptually however, the process can be illustrated by example and one illustrative of the approach is to contrast the factors affecting the same individual living in three different places.  What that approach does is emphasize certain obvious differences between places but variations in an exposome don’t depend on the sample being taken in locations thousands of miles apart.  For a variety of reasons, the same individual might record a radically different outcome if (in theory) living their entire life in one suburb compared with one adjacent or even in one room in one dwelling compared with another perhaps only a few feet away.  Conditions can be similar across a wide geographical spread or different despite close proximity (even between people sitting within speaking distance), the phenomenon of “micro-climates” in open-plan offices well documented.  The number of variables which can be used usefully to calculate (estimate might be a better word) an individual’s (or a group’s) exposome is probably at least in the dozens but could easily be expanded well into three figures were one to itemize influences (such as chemicals or specifics types of pollutant matter) and such is the complexity of the process that the mere existence of some factors might be detrimental to some individuals yet neutral or even beneficial to others.  At this stage, although the implications of applying AI (artificial intelligence) to the interaction of large data sets with a individual’s genetic mix have intrigued some, the exposome remains an indicative conceptual model rather than a defined process.

As an example, consider the same individual living variously in New York City, Dubai or Los Angeles.  In each of those places, some factors will be universal within the locality while others will vary according to which part of place one inhabits and even at what elevation at the same address; the physical environment in a building’s ground floor greatly can vary from that which prevails on the 44th floor:

Lindsay Lohan in New York City in pastel yellow & black bouclé tweed mini-dress.  Maintaining an ideal BMI (body mass index) is a positive factor in ones exposome. 

(1) Air Quality and Pollution: Moderate to high levels of air pollution, especially from traffic (NO₂, PM2.5). Seasonal heating (oil and gas) contributes in winter.  Subway air has unique particulate matter exposure.

(2) Climate and UV Radiation: Humid continental climate—cold winters and hot summers. Seasonal variability affects respiratory and cardiovascular stressors.

(3) Diet and Food Environment: Diverse food options—high availability of ultra-processed foods but also global cuisines. Food deserts in poorer boroughs can reduce fresh produce access.

(4) Built Environment and Urban Design: Dense, walkable, vertical urban environment. High reliance on public transport; more noise pollution and crowding stress.  Lower car ownership can reduce personal emissions exposure.

(5) Cultural and Psychosocial Stressors: High-paced lifestyle, long working hours. High density increases social stress, noise, and mental health challenges.  Diversity can be enriching or alienating, depending on context.

(6) Economic and Occupational Exposures: Highly competitive job market. Occupational exposures vary widely—white-collar vs service industries. Union protections exist in some sectors.

(7) Healthcare Access and Public Policy: Robust healthcare infrastructure, but disparities remain by borough and income. Medicaid and public hospitals provide some safety net.

Lindsay Lohan in Dubai in J.Lo flamingo pink velour tracksuit.  A healthy diet and regular exercise are factors in one's exposome. 

(1) Air Quality and Pollution: Frequently exposed to dust storms (fine desert dust), high PM10 levels, and air conditioning pollutants. Limited greenery means less natural air filtration.  Desalination plants and industrial expansion add further exposure.

(2) Climate and UV Radiation: Extreme desert heat (45°C+), intense UV exposure, little rain. Heat stress and dehydration risks are chronic, especially for outdoor workers.

(3) Diet and Food Environment: High import dependency. Abundant processed and fast foods, especially in malls. Dietary pattern skewed toward high sugar and fat content.  Cultural fasting (eg Ramadan) introduces cyclical dietary stressors.

(4) Built Environment and Urban Design: Car-centric city. Pedestrian-unfriendly in many areas due to heat and design. Heavy air conditioning use is a major indoor exposure pathway.

(5) Cultural and Psychosocial Stressors: Strict social codes and legal restrictions influence behavioral exposures. Expat life often means social disconnection and job insecurity for migrant workers.

(6) Economic and Occupational Exposures: Large migrant workforce faces occupational health risks, including long hours in extreme heat. Labor protections are inconsistent.

(7) Healthcare Access and Public Policy: Healthcare access stratified—good for citizens and wealthy expats, less so for low-wage migrants. Private sector dominates.

Lindsay Lohan in Los Angeles in 2005 Mercedes-Benz SL65 AMG (2005-2011) Roadster (R230, 2002-2011).  Smoking is a factor in one's exposome.

(1) Air Quality and Pollution: Known for smog due to vehicle emissions and topography (valley trap). Ozone levels high, especially in summer. Wildfire smoke increasingly common.

(2) Climate and UV Radiation: Mediterranean climate with mild, dry summers. High UV exposure, though moderated by coastal influence. Drought conditions affect water quality and stress.

(3) Diet and Food Environment: Strong health-food culture, organic and plant-based diets more common. Yet fast food and food deserts remain in less affluent areas.  Hispanic and Asian dietary influences prominent.

(4) Built Environment and Urban Design: Sprawling, suburban in many parts. High car dependence means more exposure to vehicle exhaust.  Outdoor activities more common in certain demographics (eg, beach culture).

(5) Cultural and Psychosocial Stressors: Cultural emphasis on appearance, wealth, and entertainment may increase psychosocial pressure.  Homelessness crisis also creates variable community stress exposures.

(6) Economic and Occupational Exposures: Gig economy widespread, leading to precarious employment. Hollywood and tech industries also introduce unique workplace stress patterns.

(7) Healthcare Access and Public Policy: California’s public health programs are progressive, but uninsured rates still high. Proximity to cutting-edge research centers can boost care quality for some.

So one's exposome is a product of what one wants or gets from life, mapped onto a risk analysis table.  In New York City, one copes with urban pollution and persistent subway dust in an increasingly variable climate marked by periods of high humidity, a dietary range determined by one's wealth, the advantage of a good (if not always pleasant) mass transit system and the possibility of a “walking distance” lifestyle, albeit it in usually crowded, fast-paced surroundings.  Employment conditions are mixed and access to quality health care is a product of one's insurance status or wealth.

In Dubai, one lives with frequent dust storms, months of intense heat and UV exposure, a dependence on food imports, the constant temptation of fast food (FSS; fat, salt, sugar).  The car-centric lifestyle has created a built environment described as “pedestrian-hostile” and there are sometimes severe legal limits on the personal freedom especially for migrant workers who are subject to heat exposure and limited labor rights (even those which exist often not enforced).  The health system distinctly is tiered (based on wealth) and almost exclusively privatized.

The air quality in Los Angeles greatly has improved since the 1970s but climate change has resulted in the more frequent intrusion of smoke from wildfires and the prevailing UV exposure tends to be high; the climate is not as “mild” as once it was rated.  While there are pockets in which walkability is good, Los Angeles mostly is a car-dependent culture and the coverage and frequency of mass-transit has in recent decades declined.  Although this is not unique to the city, there's heightened awareness of a sensitivity to specific cultural pressures based on appearances and perceptions of lifestyle while housing stress is increasing.  Economic pressures are being exacerbated by the growth of the gig economy and traditionally secure forms of employment are being displaced by AI (bots, robots and hybrids).  Although California's healthcare system is sometimes described as "progressive", on the ground, outcomes are patchy.

So each location shapes the exposome in distinctive ways and the potential exists for the process better to be modelled so public health interventions and policies can be adjusted.  Of course, some risks are global: anywhere on the planet there’s always the chance one might be murdered by the Freemasons but some things which might seem unlikely to be affected by location turn out also to be an exposome variable. Because planet Earth is (1) roughly spherical, (2) and travels through space (where concepts like up & down don’t apply) and (3) constantly is exposed to meteoroids (every day Earth receives tons of “space dust”), it would be reasonable to assume one is equally likely to be struck by a meteoroid wherever one may be.  However, according to NASA (the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration), strikes are not equally likely everywhere, some latitudes (and regions) being more prone, due to several factors:

(1) Because Earth’s rotation and orbital motion create a bias, meteoroids tend more often to approach from the direction of Earth’s orbital motion (the “apex direction”), meaning the leading hemisphere (the side facing Earth's motion, near the dawn terminator) sees more meteoroid entries than the trailing hemisphere.  On a global scale, the effect is small but is measurable with the risk increasing as one approaches the equatorial regions where rotational velocity is greatest.

(2) Because most meteoroids approach from near the plane of the Solar System (the ecliptic plane), there’s what NASA calls a “latitude distribution bias”: Earth’s equator being tilted only some 23.5° from the ecliptic, meteoroids are more likely to intersect Earth’s atmosphere near lower latitudes (the tropical & sub-tropical zones) than near the poles.  So, those wishing to lower their risk should try to live in the Arctic or Antarctic although those suffering chronic kosmikophobia (fear of cosmic phenomena) are likely already residents.

(3) Some 70% of the Earth’s surface area being the seas and oceans, statistically, most meteoroids land in the water rather than in land so the lesson is clear: avoid living at sea.  The calculated probability is of course just math; because sparsely populated deserts accumulate meteorites better because erosion is low, a large number have been found in places like the Sahara and outback Australia but those numbers reflect a preservation bias and don’t necessarily confirm a higher strike rate.  The lesson from the statisticians is: Don’t dismiss the notion of living in a desert because of a fear of being struck by a meteoroid.

(4) Gravitational focusing, although it does increase Earth’s meteoroid capture rates (disproportionately so for objects travelling more slowly), is a global effect so there is no known locational bias.  While there is at least one documented case of a person being struck by a meteoroid, the evidence does suggest the risk is too low to be statistically significant and should thus not be factored into the calculation of one’s exposome because one is anywhere at greater risk of being murdered by the Freemasons.

Ms Ann Hodges with bruise, Alabama, September. 1952.  Painful though it would have been, she did get  her 15 minutes of fame and eventually sold the fragment for US$25 so there was that.

In the narrow technical sense, many people have been struck by objects from space (as estimated 40+ tons of the stuff arrives every day) but most fragments are dust particles, too small to be noticed.  The only scientifically verified injury a person has suffered was an impressively large bruise a meteorite (the part of a meteoroid that survives its fiery passage through the atmosphere to land on Earth’s surface) on 10 September 1954 inflicted on Ms Ann Hodges (1920-1972) of Sylacauga, Alabama in the US.  Weighing 7.9 lb (3.6 kg), the intruder crashed through the roof of her house and bounced off a radio, striking her while enjoying a nap on the sofa.  The meteoroid was called Sylacauga and, just as appropriately, the offending meteorite was named the Hodges Fragment.  Anatomically modern humans (AMH) have been walking the planet for perhaps 300,000 years and we’ve been (more or less) behaviorally modern (BMH) for maybe a quarter of that so it’s possible many more of us have been struck,  In the absence of records, while it’s impossible to be definitive, it’s likely more have been murdered by the Freemasons that have ever been killed by stuff falling from space although, as the history of species extinction illustrates, a direct hit on someone is not a prerequisite for dire consequences.

Dashcam footage of meteorite fragment in the sky over Lexington, South Carolina.

The cosmic intruder crashed through the roof of a house on 26 June, 2025 and although there were no injuries, Fox News reported the fragment left a hole in the floor “about the size of a large cherry tomato”.  Analysis determined the rock was from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter and as well as the dramatic fireball many captured on their dashcams, it would briefly have broken the sound barrier as it entered Earth’s atmosphere.  It was also very old, dating from slightly before the formation of the Solar System’s rocky inner planets (one of which is Earth) some 4.56 billion years ago and such fragments are of interest to many branches of science because they represent a small part of the “basic building blocks” of those planets and can thus assist in understanding the processes active during the Solar System’s earliest days.  Curiously (to those not trained in such things), the cosmologists explained “such a small fragment didn’t present a threat to anyone” which seems strange given its impact left a small crater in a floor, one implication being one wouldn’t wish for such a thing to hit one’s skull.  That the impact happened in Georgia, a state adjacent to Alabama where a half-century earlier the unfortunate Ms Hodges was struck, may make some add meteorite fragments” to their list of exposome factors south of the Mason-Dixon Line” but the sample size is too small for conclusions to be drawn and the events are mere geographic coincidences.

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Zugzwang

Zugzwang (pronounced tsook-tsvahng)

(1) In chess, a situation in which a player is limited to moves that cost pieces or have a damaging positional effect.

(2) A situation in which, whatever is done, makes things worse (applied variously to sport, politics, battlefield engagements etc).

(3) A situation in which one is forced to act when one would prefer to remain passive and thus a synonym of the German compound noun Zugpflicht (the rule that a player cannot forgo a move).

(4) In game theory, a move which changes the outcome from win to loss.

Circa 1858 (1905 in English): A modern German compound, the construct being zug+zwang.  Zug (move) was from the Middle High German zuc & zug, from the Old High German zug ,from Proto-Germanic tugiz, an abstract noun belonging to the Proto-Germanic teuhaną, from the primitive Indo-European dewk (to pull, lead); it was cognate with the Dutch teug and the Old English tyge.  Zwang (compulsion; force; constraint; obligation) was from the Middle High German twanc, from the Old High German geduang.  It belongs to the verb zwingen and cognates include the Dutch dwang and the Swedish tvång.  The word is best understood as "compulsion to move" or, in the jargon of chess players: "Your turn to move and whatever you do it'll make things worse for you", thus the application to game theory, military strategy and politics where there's often a need to determine the "least worse option".  Zugzwang is a noun; the noun plural is Zugzwänge.  In English, derived forms such as zugzwanged, zugzwanging, zugzwangish, zugzwanger, zugzwangesque and zugzwangee are non-standard and used usually for humorous effect.

Chess and Game Theory

Endgame: Black's turn and Zugzwang! Daily Chess Musings depiction of the elegance of zugwang.

The first known use of Zugzwang in the German chess literature appears in 1858; the first appearance in English in 1905.  However, the concept of Zugzwang had been known and written about for centuries, the classic work being Italian chess player Alessandro Salvio's (circa 1575–circa 1640) study of endgames published in 1604 and he referenced Shatranj writings from the early ninth century, some thousand years before the first known use of the term.  Positions with Zugzwang are not rare in chess endgames, best known in the king-rook & king-pawn conjunctions.  Positions of reciprocal Zugzwang are important in the analysis of endgames but although the concept is easily demonstrated and understood, that's true only of the "simple Zugzwang" and the so-called "sequential Zugzwang" will typically be a multi-move thing which demands an understanding of even dozens of permutations of possibilities.

Rendered by Vovsoft as cartoon character: a brunette Lindsay Lohan at the chessboard.  In her youth, she was a bit of a zugzwanger.

Zugzwang describes a situation where one player is put at a disadvantage because they have to make a move although the player would prefer to pass and make no move. The fact the player must make a move means their position will be significantly weaker than the hypothetical one in which it is the opponent's turn to move. In game theory, it specifically means that it directly changes the outcome of the game from a win to a loss.  Chess textbooks often cite as the classic Zugzwang a match in Copenhagen in 1923; on that day the German Grandmaster (the title inaugurated in 1950) Friedrich Sämisch (1896–1975) played White against the Latvian-born Danish Aron Nimzowitsch (1886-1935).  Playing Black, Nimzowitsch didn’t play a tactical match in the conventional sense but instead applied positional advantage, gradually to limit his opponent’s options until, as endgame was reached, White was left with no move which didn’t worsen his position; whatever he choose would lead either to material loss or strategic collapse and it’s said in his notebook, Nimzowitsch concluded his entry on the match with “Zugzwang!  A noted eccentric in a discipline where idiosyncratic behaviour is not unknown, the Polish Grandmaster Savielly Tartakower (1887-1956) observed of Nimzowitsch: “He pretends to be crazy in order to drive us all crazy.

French sculptor Auguste Rodin's (1840-1917) The Thinker (1904), Musée Rodin, Paris (left) and Boris Johnson (b 1964; UK prime-minister 2019-2022) thinking about which would be his least worst option (left).

In its classic form chess is a game between two, played with fixed rules on a board with a known number of pieces (32) and squares (64).  Although a count of the possible permutations in a match would yield a very big number, in chess, the concept of Zugwang is simple and understood the same way by those playing black and white; information for both sides is complete and while the concept can find an expression both combinatorial game theory (CGT) and classical game theory, the paths can be different.  CGT and GT (the latter historically a tool of economic modelers and strategists in many fields) are both mathematical studies of games behaviour which can be imagined as “game-like” but differ in focus, assumptions, and applications.  In CGT the basic model (as in chess) is of a two-player deterministic game in which the moves alternate and luck or chance is not an element.  This compares GT in which there may be any number of players, moves may be simultaneous, the option exists not to move, information known to players may be incomplete (or asymmetric) and luck & chance exist among many variables (which can include all of Donald Rumsfeld’s (1932–2021: US defense secretary 1975-1977 & 2001-2006) helpful categories (known knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns & (most intriguingly) unknown knowns).  So, while CGT is a good device for deconstructing chess and such because such games are of finite duration and players focus exclusively on “winning” (and if need be switching to “avoiding defeat”), GT is a tool which can be applied to maximize advantage or utility in situations where a win/defeat dichotomy is either not sought or becomes impossible.  The difference then is that CGT envisages two players seeking to solve deterministic puzzle on a win/lose basis while GT is there to describes & analyse strategic interactions between & among rational actors, some or all of which may be operating with some degree of uncertainty.

Serial zugzwanger Barnaby Joyce (b 1967; thrice (between local difficulties) deputy prime minister of Australia 2016-2022), Parliament House, Canberra.  More than many, Mr Joyce has had to sit and ponder what might at that moment be his “least worst” option.  He has made choices good and bad.

In politics and military conflicts (a spectrum condition according to Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz (1780–1831)), a zugzwang often is seen as parties are compelled to take their “least worst” option, even when circumstances dictate it would be better to “do nothing”.  However, the zugzwang can lie in the eye of the beholder and that why the unexpected Ardennes Offensive, (Wacht am Rhein (Watch on the Rhine) the German code-name though popularly known in the West as the Battle of the Bulge, (December 1944-January 1945)) was ordered by Adolf Hitler (1889-1945; Führer (leader) and German head of government 1933-1945 & head of state 1934-1945).  It was the last major German strategic offensive of World War II (1939-1945) and among all but the most sycophantic of Hitler’s military advisors it was thought not “least worst” but rather “worse than the sensible” option (although not all the generals at the time concurred with what constituted “sensible”).  Under the Nazi state’s Führerprinzip (leader principle) the concept was that in any institutional structure authority was vested in the designated leader and that meant ultimately Hitler’s rule was a personal dictatorship (although the extent of the fragmentation wasn’t understood until after the war) so while the generals could warn, counsel & advise, ultimately decisions were based on the Führer’s will, thus the Ardennes Offensive.

While the operation made no strategic sense to the conventionally-schooled generals, to Hitler it was compelling because the tide of the war had forced him to pursue the only strategy left: delay what appeared an inevitable defeat in the hope the (real but still suppressed) political tensions between his opponents would sunder their alliance, allowing him to direct his resources against one front rather than three (four if the battle in the skies was considered a distinct theatre as many historians argue).  Like Charles Dickens’ (1812–1870) Mr Micawber in David Copperfield (1849-1850), Hitler was hoping “something would turn up”.  Because of the disparity in military and economic strength between the German and Allied forces, in retrospect, the Ardennes Offensive appears nonsensical but, at the time, it was a rational tactic even if the strategy of “delay” was flawed.  Confronted as he was by attacks from the west, east and south, continuing to fight a defensive war would lead only to an inevitable defeat; an offensive in the east was impossible because of the strength of the Red Army and even a major battlefield victor in the south would have no strategic significance so it was only in the west a glimmer of success seemed to beckon.

The bulge.

In the last great example of the professionalism and tactical improvisation which was a hallmark of their operations during the war, secretly the Wehrmacht (the German military) assembled a large armored force (essentially under the eyes of the Allies) and staged a surprise attack through the Ardennes, aided immeasurably by the cover of heavy, low clouds which precluded both Allied reconnaissance and deployment of their overwhelming strength in air-power.  Initially successful, the advance punched several holes in the line, the shape of which, when marked on a map, lent the campaign the name “Battle of the Bulge” but within days the weather cleared, allowing the Allies to unleash almost unopposed their overwhelming superiority in air power.  This, combined with their vast military and logistical resources, doomed the Ardennes Offensive, inflicting losses from which the Wehrmacht never recovered: From mid-January on, German forces never regained the initiative, retreating on all fronts until the inevitable defeat in May.  A last throw of the dice, the offensive both failed and squandered precious (and often irreplaceable) resources badly needed elsewhere.  By December 1944, Hitler had been confronted with a zugzwang (of his own making) and while whatever he did would have made Germany’s position worse, at least arguably, the Ardennes Offensive was not even his “least worse” option.